Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

884 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Robinhood (HOOD) Eyes Global Expansion of Prediction Markets After U.S. Debut: Bloomberg

Robinhood (HOOD) Eyes Global Expansion of Prediction Markets After U.S. Debut: Bloomberg

The post Robinhood (HOOD) Eyes Global Expansion of Prediction Markets After U.S. Debut: Bloomberg appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Popular trading platform Robinhood (HOOD) is planning to expand its prediction markets product, which allows traders to buy and sell contracts based on future outcomes, beyond the U.S. and into global markets, the company told Bloomberg. Robinhood sees international demand growing, especially in Europe and the UK. JB Mackenzie, vice president and general manager of futures and international at the company, said users abroad have shown particular interest in this new form of trading. “We’re definitely looking to offer it globally, and my goal or focus is to make sure it’s a regulatory-compliant product everywhere we go,” Mackenzie told Bloomberg. To that end, Robinhood has begun discussions with overseas regulators, including the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority, to explore how a localized version of the product could be structured, he said. The move follows its recent partnership with blockchain-based and CFTC-regulated Kalshi, which lets users bet on the outcomes of real-world events such as elections, economic data releases or geopolitical developments. Rise of prediction market The push into prediction markets comes amid a surge of interest in event-based trading, sparked in part by the rise of crypto-native platform Polymarket. That platform has processed billions of dollars in wagers in 2024, largely tied to the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. The platform became so popular that Polymarket was recently reported to be weighing a potential deal that valued the company at $9 billion, a sharp climb from its $1 billion valuation just a few months ago. While Polymarket rose to fame, the market was somewhat constricted. Now, with Robinhood’s U.S. and potentially global offerings, it might open up the prediction market to a larger group of traders. CoinDesk has reached out to Robinhood for comments. Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/30/robinhood-eyes-global-expansion-of-prediction-markets-after-u-s-debut-bloomberg

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood Plans Offshore Prediction Markets Outside U.S.

Robinhood Plans Offshore Prediction Markets Outside U.S.

The post Robinhood Plans Offshore Prediction Markets Outside U.S. appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Points: Robinhood exploring offshore prediction markets outside U.S. amid crypto trends. Strategy aims for compliance and growth opportunities. No official comments from Robinhood’s CEO yet on the development. Robinhood contemplates launching offshore prediction markets outside the U.S., reflecting its strategic expansion into global, compliant fintech innovation, as reported by ChainCatcher and Bloomberg. This initiative could reshape global tokenized finance, leveraging Robinhood’s user base, potentially enhancing revenue and compliance despite minimal direct market reactions or social media commentary. Robinhood’s Strategic Offshore Expansion and Potential Growth Robinhood’s planned entry into offshore prediction markets highlights its attempt to expand its financial product offerings. The initiative, aligned with global trends, involves creating tokenized finance products outside U.S. jurisdiction. CEO Vlad Tenev has guided Robinhood strategically through this phase, although no official statements have been released yet about this specific plan. The potential changes from this initiative could include a significant increase in Robinhood’s revenue mix from crypto trading. Currently accounting for 43% of its transaction-based revenue, expansion into offshore markets might raise its leverage. This may lead to exceeding 50% in total trading revenue if adopted widely in Europe. The launch could drive user and trading activity, accelerating overall market growth. Market reactions are keenly positive, with community forums expressing enthusiasm about diversified access and on-chain instrument availability in European and other markets. The focus remains on the company’s potential to grow its transaction-based revenue significantly. However, no statements have emerged yet from regulatory bodies like the SEC or CFTC about Robinhood’s new offshore plans. Community Anticipates Benefits of New Offshore Products Did you know? In 2024, Polymarket outpaced traditional polling in accuracy for U.S. elections, indicating a shift towards predictive market authority. Ethereum (ETH) is currently valued at $4,143.35, with a market cap of $500.12 billion, showing a 60-day increase of 13.95%…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Report: Robinhood Explores Overseas Prediction Markets Launch

Report: Robinhood Explores Overseas Prediction Markets Launch

The post Report: Robinhood Explores Overseas Prediction Markets Launch appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Robinhood is reportedly taking its prediction markets global, betting that the world is just as eager to wager on everything from elections to sports. Not content with just disrupting domestic investing, Robinhood is now taking its prediction markets global, according to a recent Bloomberg report. The move aims to capitalize on soaring international demand for […] Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/report-robinhood-explores-overseas-prediction-markets-launch/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood weighs global rollout of prediction markets

Robinhood weighs global rollout of prediction markets

The post Robinhood weighs global rollout of prediction markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Robinhood Markets Inc. is in discussions with overseas regulators about expanding its fast-growing prediction markets business outside the United States. In coverage initially published by Bloomberg, JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s vice president of futures and international, said the firm has held talks with the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on how such contracts would be treated under local law. In the US, prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as swap products, while in Europe they are often classified as gambling. “We’re definitely looking to offer it globally, and my goal or focus is to make sure it’s a regulatory-compliant product everywhere we go,” said Mackenzie. The brokerage entered the UK and European Union in late 2023, primarily offering equities and cryptocurrency trading. Its push into prediction markets builds on partnerships with CFTC-approved venues like Kalshi and ForecastEx, which let users speculate on outcomes ranging from elections to sports. CEO Vlad Tenev said on Tuesday that Robinhood had facilitated more than 4 billion event contracts, with over 2 billion traded in the third quarter alone. Shares rose more than 12% following the disclosure. This is a developing story. This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor Jeffrey Albus before publication. Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters: Source: https://blockworks.co/news/robinhood-global-prediction-markets

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Talus Labs secures over $10M for AI agents and prediction markets infrastructure

Talus Labs secures over $10M for AI agents and prediction markets infrastructure

The post Talus Labs secures over $10M for AI agents and prediction markets infrastructure appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Takeaways Talus Labs raised over $10 million led by Polychain Capital, with participation from Sui Foundation and Walrus Protocol. The startup is building PredictionAI, merging AI agents with prediction markets to create a novel infrastructure. Talus Labs, a blockchain infrastructure firm pioneering PredictionAI by fusing AI agents with prediction markets, secured over $10 million in funding led by Polychain Capital today. The round included strategic investments from Sui Foundation and Walrus Protocol to develop AI agent infrastructure. The company’s Nexus Framework utilizes the Sui Network for global coordination and Walrus Protocol for transparent data layers, enabling fair AI agent competitions. Talus Labs operates a testnet through its flagship platform Idol.fun. The funding positions Talus Labs to launch AvA Markets on mainnet in Q1 2026. AvA Markets represents the company’s innovation where AI agents compete in provably fair environments, with users betting on results. Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/talus-labs-raises-10m-for-ai-agent-prediction-markets/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Odds of a government shutdown rise to 70% in prediction markets

Odds of a government shutdown rise to 70% in prediction markets

The post Odds of a government shutdown rise to 70% in prediction markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. A stop sign is seen at a security checkpoint at the US Capitol in Washington, DC on March 24, 2019. Andrew Caballero-reynolds | Afp | Getty Images Prediction markets are pricing in about a 70% chance that the federal government will shut down on Wednesday, reflecting growing skepticism that lawmakers will strike a last-minute deal to keep agencies funded. Users on Kalshi and Polymarket increased their bets on a government closure after the Labor Department said it won’t release Friday’s key jobs report, watched closely on Wall Street, in case of a shutdown. Over the weekend, the odds were at around 50%. Zoom In IconArrows pointing outwards The elevated odds underscore deepening dysfunction in Congress, where disputes over spending levels escalated. While Democrats want the funding bill to include extensions to Affordable Care Act insurance subsidies, Republican leaders are saying that debate should wait until after a shutdown is averted. President Donald Trump is expected to meet with the top four congressional leaders Monday after abruptly canceling a meeting with Democratic leadership last week. The Trump administration last week told federal agencies to begin preparing for mass firings if Congress does not agree to a deal to avert a shutdown. If the White House follows through on its threat, it would mark a break from precedent. In past shutdowns, federal employees have been furloughed but not permanently laid off. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/29/odds-of-a-government-shutdown-rise-to-70percent-in-prediction-markets.html

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Exploring Prediction Markets and Crypto Trends: Insights from a16z

Exploring Prediction Markets and Crypto Trends: Insights from a16z

The post Exploring Prediction Markets and Crypto Trends: Insights from a16z appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Timothy Morano Sep 27, 2025 17:23 Discover the resurgence of prediction markets, strategic fundraising advice, and the evolving role of blockchain expertise in hiring, according to insights from a16z crypto editorial. Prediction markets are experiencing renewed interest, becoming a focal point of conversation across various platforms, including popular culture references like South Park. According to a16z crypto editorial, these markets are gaining traction due to their potential in forecasting outcomes by harnessing collective intelligence. Experts like Alex Tabarrok, Scott Kominers, and Sonal Chokshi delve into the mechanics and applications of prediction markets, highlighting their relevance in today’s tech-driven world. Understanding Prediction Markets Prediction markets function by allowing individuals to trade contracts based on the outcome of future events. This mechanism enables the aggregation of diverse opinions, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. The discussion by a16z emphasizes the markets’ compatibility with emerging technologies such as AI and blockchain, especially in contexts like futarchy and scientific publishing. Fundraising Strategies for Founders In the realm of fundraising, a16z provides critical advice for startup founders. The editorial advises against relying on opportunistic approaches, such as hoping to be preempted in fundraising rounds. Instead, it suggests a return to traditional, structured venture capital pitching. This strategy involves a deliberate process, focusing on building strong fundamentals rather than relying on market anomalies like those seen during the 2020-2021 period. Hiring in the Crypto Industry The crypto industry’s rapid growth raises important questions about hiring practices. Should companies prioritize candidates with crypto-native experience, or should they focus on adaptable individuals who can learn quickly? a16z’s guide aims to assist recruiters in identifying when blockchain expertise is essential and when broader skill sets might suffice. This approach helps in addressing the unique challenges posed by the dynamic nature of…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Understanding Prediction Markets: Insights from Experts

Understanding Prediction Markets: Insights from Experts

The post Understanding Prediction Markets: Insights from Experts appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Jessie A Ellis Sep 26, 2025 21:40 Explore the intricacies of prediction markets with insights from experts Scott Duke Kominers, Alex Tabarrok, and Sonal Chokshi. Learn about their design, functionality, and potential applications. Prediction markets have resurfaced as a topic of interest, offering a unique mechanism for forecasting future events. These markets, which aggregate information from various participants, are gaining attention for their potential to accurately predict outcomes, according to experts Scott Duke Kominers, Alex Tabarrok, and Sonal Chokshi. What Are Prediction Markets? Prediction markets function by allowing participants to buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events. The market price of these contracts reflects the collective probability of an event occurring, as perceived by the participants. As Alex Tabarrok, a professor of economics at George Mason University, explains, these markets are often more reliable than traditional polls or complex statistical models because they aggregate diverse information. The Mechanics Behind Prediction Markets Scott Kominers, a research partner at a16z crypto and a professor at Harvard Business School, emphasizes that prediction markets serve as information aggregation mechanisms. They collect and synthesize private forecasts from participants, leading to price discovery similar to that seen in financial and commodities markets. This aggregation of information often results in more accurate predictions compared to individual estimates. Applications and Challenges While prediction markets are a powerful tool, they are not without challenges. The potential for manipulation exists, especially when participants have incentives to influence market outcomes. However, as Kominers points out, markets tend to self-correct, as observed during attempts to manipulate political prediction markets in past elections. Beyond their traditional use in forecasting political outcomes, prediction markets are also being explored for applications such as scientific replication and corporate decision-making. For instance, companies like Hewlett-Packard…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
South Park Skewers Prediction Markets in Latest Episode

South Park Skewers Prediction Markets in Latest Episode

The post South Park Skewers Prediction Markets in Latest Episode appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The animated series South Park already kicked off its 27th season by ripping into cryptocurrencies and politics, and its most recent episode set its sights on prediction market apps.  In its episode titled Conflict of Interest, which aired on Wednesday, the characters in South Park’s elementary school engaged in a debate over the merits of prediction markets and the role US regulators had in overseeing them. Among the bets they made on a Kalshi- or Polymarket-type app included guessing school lunches, the outcome of conflicts between Israel and Palestine and whether a fictional baby was a boy or a girl. The show also poked fun at the individuals in charge of prediction markets and US regulators, including the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Federal Communications Commission (FCC), claiming they were “highly professional strategic advisers,” while portraying a character resembling Donald Trump Jr., who joined Polymarket’s advisory board in August and was named as a strategic adviser at Kalshi in January. Fictional Kalshi bet featured on the latest episode of South Park. Source: Comedy Central South Park has regularly incorporated cryptocurrency and blockchain themes into its satire. Past episodes have featured US President Donald Trump’s connections to crypto, labeled Bitcoin (BTC) a “fly-by-night Ponzi scheme,” and and made fun of people investing in non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Related: South Park destroys Matt Damon’s Crypto.com ad in season premiere The show’s 27th season launched after its owner, Paramount Global, reached a $16 million settlement with Trump over allegations of deceptive editing in an interview. The show consistently mocks the US president. Federal scrutiny of prediction markets seems to be waning in the US Kalshi had been engaged in a legal battle with the CFTC after the US regulator ordered the company to stop offering political event contracts in 2023. A lower…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Recap: New ‘South Park’ Mocks Trump, FCC’s Carr And Prediction Market

Recap: New ‘South Park’ Mocks Trump, FCC’s Carr And Prediction Market

The post Recap: New ‘South Park’ Mocks Trump, FCC’s Carr And Prediction Market appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Scene from “South Park” Season 27, Episode 5. Comedy Central/Paramount+ South Park continued with its mockery of President Donald Trump in Episode 5 of Season 27 on Wednesday, titled Conflict of Interest. The episode premiered on Comedy Central on Wednesday night before it began streaming on Paramount+ Thursday morning. Conflict of Interest once again skewers Trump and Satan, but also takes on prediction market apps as South Park Elementary students, including Cartman, get involved in the craze. Note: The rest of this article includes major spoilers about “Conflict of Interest.” Forbes‘South Park’ Season 27 Updated Release Schedule: When Do New Episodes Come Out?By Tim Lammers As part of the prediction market apps storyline, South Park creators Trey Parker and Matt Stone wade into the debate over the Israel-Gaza War as students place bets on whether Kyle’s mother, who is Jewish, will launch a strike on Gaza. Angered over the antisemitic bet, Kyle tries reaching different government agencies to get it removed from the apps (and reaches special advisor Donald Trump Jr. each time). Eventually, Kyle gets Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr involved (more on that later). Even though Trump has been the prime target of Parker and Stone since the new season kicked off on July 23, it still came as somewhat of a surprise that the president was lampooned again on Wednesday. After all, the airing of the episode — which was supposed to be released last week — comes while political tensions remain high in the country following the Sept. 10 assassination of Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk. Kirk was parodied in South Park’s second episode of the new season on Aug. 6, which the right-wing activist and podcaster took the ribbing in stride. Even so, Comedy Central removed the episode from its rerun line-up, though…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews