Republicans dogged by 'very bad news' as midterms draw closer

Many of the double-digit victories that Democrats enjoyed in November were in swing states or blue states, from three Pennsylvania Supreme Court retention elections to Democratic now-Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger flipping a GOP-held seat by 15 percent. A gubernatorial election in blue-leaning New Jersey — which has had two Republican governors since the 1990s (Christie Todd Whitman and Chris Christie) — was expected to be close. Instead, Democratic now-Gov. Mikie Sherrill defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 14 percent.

But in some special elections in 2026, Democrats performed shockingly well in a few deep red districts.

In an article originally published by The Conversation and republished by Salon on March 1, Charlie Hunt — a political science professor at Boise State University in Idaho — poses the question: does this series of Democratic wins spell disaster for Republicans in the 2026 midterms?

"On February 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House," Hunt explains. "That's an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even outside her Baton Rouge-area district. But Martinez is a Democrat who took 62 percent of the vote in a district that had given Donald Trump a 13-percentage-point victory in the 2024 presidential race. And her win came a week after Democrats seized a Texas Senate district that had supported Trump even more strongly — a result that immediately triggered concern in Republican circles."

Hunt continues, "Because fewer people turn out for special elections, they're considered an early predictor of partisan enthusiasm heading into regularly scheduled elections. And with the 2026 midterm elections less than nine months away, analysts are already scrambling for indications of the likely outcome."

With Democratic victories in special elections, Hunt emphasizes, it's important to note the margins of victory and where the elections took place.

"After all, a Democrat just barely squeaking by in a state legislative race may not look very impressive on its face," Hunt argues. "But if that race took place in the rural heart of a red state, it could raise hackles among Republicans…. On average, (Democrats are) running ahead of (former Vice President Kamala) Harris' 2024 margins by a whopping 13 percentage points. That's better than they did in 2018, when they ultimately picked up 40 seats in the House and seven governorships across the country."

So far in 2026, according to Hunt, the results of special elections are a bad sign for Republicans.

"In the 2026 election cycle, as in previous ones, prognosticators and political professionals are looking to the outcomes of these intermittent races at various levels of government as a gauge of how voters are feeling about the two parties," Hunt observes. "And the results from the first 15 months of the second Trump Administration appear to spell very bad news for the Republicans…. There's no telling for sure whether these indicators will turn out to be truly predictive until November. But all of them should be sounding alarm bells for Republicans."

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