Trump made 'profound miscalculation' that will harm rest of his presidency: analysis

Donald Trump's administration is still struggling to fix a mistake made that will likely affect the rest of the presidency, a political analyst has claimed.

While the president's team launched strikes on Iran last month, the financial consequences of the war could unravel Trump in the latter half of his presidency. Analysis from Brahma Chellaney in The Hill noted that Trump had grossly underestimated the war in Iran and the consequences of strikes carried out in March.

Chellaney wrote, "Trump’s advisers argued that any Iranian retaliation — whether through attacks on Gulf infrastructure or disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz — could be offset by U.S. and allied production. Last June’s limited U.S. strikes on Iran had triggered only temporary price spikes, reinforcing the belief that markets could be managed."

"Energy dominance, in this reading, was not just an economic strategy; it was a license for geopolitical coercion. It removed a constraint that had shaped decades of U.S. policy. Where previous presidents hesitated — fearing that war with Iran would send oil prices soaring and damage the global economy — Trump saw an opportunity. If supply could be controlled, then conflict could be contained."

"But this logic rested on a profound miscalculation that energy systems are linear, predictable and ultimately subordinate to American power. They are not."

The strikes on Iran and subsequent energy crisis, which has been noted by some economists as lasting far longer than they had anticipated, will be the defining moment of Trump's legacy, Chellaney argued.

"Energy is not just another commodity," he wrote. "It is the foundation of modern economic life. When energy prices rise sharply, food prices follow. Natural gas is essential for fertilizer production, while oil powers agricultural machinery, irrigation and transport."

"The result is a cascading effect: an energy shock becomes a food shock and, for many societies, a political shock, hitting the most vulnerable countries hardest. This is the real legacy of Trump’s war: not battlefield outcomes, but systemic disruption."