Why the 'madman theory' doesn’t hold up for 'ludicrously easy to predict' Trump

Among defenders of President Donald Trump's foreign policy, the "madman theory" is sometimes used to put a positive spin on his more erratic behavior. The "madman theory" contends that Trump doesn't really lack self-control, but rather, wants foes of the United States to think that he does in order to intimidate them.

Trump, according to the "madman theory," is shrewd and calculating — not lacking in self-control.

Journalist Andrew Egger examines the "madman theory" in an article published by the conservative website The Bulwark on March 23, laying out some reasons why he disagrees with it.

"Donald Trump's impulsiveness, his erratic tendencies, his chest-thumping macho posturing, his hyper-fixation on random secondary objectives, his questionable object permanence — all the traits that he's put so thoroughly on display during the Iran conflict were evident during his first-term foreign policy, as well," Egger explains. "Back then, Republicans desperate to find a silver lining hatched a theory of Trump: Perhaps he was simply a madman diplomat in the school of Richard Nixon, deliberately cultivating a volatile, irrational image to wrongfoot our adversaries: 'Don't cross him — he might just be crazy enough to do it!'"

Egger continues, "There were always several problems with this. For one thing, it's never been clear that the madman theory ends up working out well for anybody. But just as importantly, Trump — for all his lunatic swerves — has never actually been able to effectively hide his own motivations, which usually turn out to be childishly simple. All the tantrums in the world haven't obscured the fact that he tends to be ludicrously easy to predict."

Egger argues that during the Iran war, "all the madman posturing in the world" doesn't change the fact that "Iran knows how badly Trump needs to get the oil-price situation under control."

"Again and again," the Bulwark journalist explains, "Trump has signaled he will let other foreign-policy objectives fall by the wayside to address this major domestic concern…. Madman theory never really works. But what we've got now is a president who gives us all of the obvious drawbacks and none of the purported benefits — who shakes the global economy around like a rag doll yet whose economic bluffs remain easy for our adversaries to predict."

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