Analysis: Trump's "48-hour ultimatum" may trigger increased volatility in the oil market, raising the risk of escalating conflict.
PANews reported on March 22 that Garrett Jin, an agent for "1011 Insider Whale," posted on the X platform that Trump has issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding the full restoration of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The situation has clearly escalated, and overall, oil prices and market volatility are likely to continue rising, with the conflict expected to last longer. He summarized this move as having three key impacts:
First, the diplomatic buffer has been broken, and the previous low-key negotiation path between Iran and Japan on the passage of ships one by one may be terminated.
Second, the nature of the conflict is escalating. If the strikes expand to civilian infrastructure such as power facilities, it will strengthen Iran's position and increase the probability of a protracted war.
Third, oil market volatility has surged and market mismatch has intensified. The crude oil volatility index (OVX) has risen to 93, while the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index (VIX) is about 24, with the ratio of the two being close to 4, indicating that the risks in the oil market far exceed those priced into the stock market.
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