Bitcoin Holds Around $70K as ETF Flows Bleed and Markets Digest Ongoing Iran Conflict

When oil spiked and the US-Iran conflict rattled markets in late February, the default assumption was predictable: gold up, Bitcoin down. Three weeks later, the data told a different story.

Bitcoin absorbed the geopolitical shock early – selling off sharply over the conflict weekend – while gold initially held its ground as the go-to safe haven. But the recovery told a different story. BTC clawed back more than 10% from its lows. Gold cratered 18% over the same window. Swissblock’s Risk Index, which opened the period in capitulation territory, has since cooled to 26 – a high-risk cooldown, not a crisis.

The read here isn’t complicated. Bitcoin priced in the geopolitical risk before the broader market did. It sold first, recovered fastest. That’s not the behavior of a speculative toy – that’s an asset finding its footing as a macro instrument. Oil may still be elevated, the Middle East situation unresolved, but the market has decided: this isn’t a systemic event for crypto.

Bitcoin ETF Flows

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows through March have been a mixed bag – and that’s putting it generously. According to data from Farside Investors, the week of March 5–6 saw brutal outflows, with the combined total hitting nearly -$349 million on March 6 alone. BlackRock’s IBIT wasn’t immune, bleeding $143.5 million that day.

But zoom out. On the days capital returned to the space, IBIT led. March 2 brought $263 million into IBIT. March 3 added another $322 million. March 10 saw $185 million. The pattern is clear: when institutions want Bitcoin exposure, they’re going through BlackRock’s product first. Fidelity’s FBTC runs second, with the remaining ETFs largely splitting crumbs.

The most recent reading – March 20 – was negative across the board at -$52 million total. That’s not alarming by itself, but it does signal caution heading into the weekend. ETF flow momentum will need to turn if BTC is going to mount a convincing push above $75K in the near term.

Bitcoin’s Bottom

Trader Merlijn, who has built a following around cycle-based Bitcoin analysis, flagged what he calls the “Bitcoin Blood Moon” – a lunar-correlated signal that has appeared three times in Bitcoin’s history. The first two preceded gains of +1,942% and +707% respectively. His projection for the current cycle: +254% from the $65K base.

The framing is theatrical, but the underlying logic isn’t entirely dismissible. The chart shows a clear structure – $65K as the floor of the current cycle’s green box, with the thesis that holding that level sets up the full move. Lose it, and the box extends lower before the real run begins. It’s a high-conviction call with a wide error bar. Treat it as a framework, not a forecast.

Technical Picture: Cautiously Constructive

The daily chart coming into this week shows Bitcoin trading around $70,700, having reclaimed the 50-day SMA at $69,583 – which is now flipping to support. The 100-day SMA sits much higher at $79,621, still presenting overhead resistance.

RSI at 50.32 on the close line is neutral-to-slightly-bullish – not overbought, not in distress. The signal line at 52.18 suggests mild upward momentum is developing. MACD tells a cleaner story: the fast line has crossed above the signal and the histogram is printing green bars after an extended bearish phase that bottomed out in late January/early February. That’s a meaningful shift.

For now, $69,500-$70,000 is the zone to defend. A clean hold here with continued ETF inflows and any further de-escalation on the geopolitical front sets up a test of $75K-$79K resistance. A break below the 50-day and the bear case reopens quickly.

Bitcoin isn’t out of the woods. Given the fact that the Iran war escalation might not be over, another sudden correction could potentially surprise investors, especially if you take into account how the equity market and precious metals crashed. Gold, which is widely considered a safe-haven, experienced its biggest weekly crash in 43 years – down 10.5% to $4,490 in a single week.

Despite the lack of optimism in the markets due to inflation fears, surging oil prices, and the minimal chance of a rate cut in 2026, Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole seem to be in a favorable position and considerabily stable (given the macro factors). And although this might not be the bottom for BTC, its resilience in the face of such an unprecedented crisis shows how much the asset has grown throughout the years.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Related stories

Next article