Solana Price Rises 9%, But Holder Shift Raises New Crash Risk

Solana price has rebounded nearly 9% after falling to around $75 on February 23, and it is still holding most of those gains above $82.

This kind of bounce normally attracts strong buyers because it suggests the worst may be over. But that is not what is happening this time. The investors who usually step in during recoveries — long-term holders — are stepping back instead. This creates an unusual disconnect between price and conviction, and it helps explain why Solana’s rebound is already facing pressure.

Long-Term Holder Buying Has Dropped Nearly 62% Despite the Price Bounce

The clearest sign of weakening conviction comes from the HODLer Net Position Change metric. This indicator measures how much long-term holders, defined as wallets holding Solana for more than 155 days, are adding or reducing over a rolling 30-day period.

On February 10, long-term holders added about 1.5 million SOL. By February 24, that number had fallen sharply to just 564,317 SOL. This marks a drop of about 62.5% in accumulation within two weeks. This decline happened even as Solana’s price stabilized and rebounded, which makes the shift especially important.

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In simple terms, Solana’s strongest holders were buying aggressively earlier in the month, but that confidence has faded significantly. When accumulation falls this sharply, it suggests these investors are no longer convinced the current bounce is the start of a sustained recovery. Despite the SOL price bounce, the Hodler positioning is at its lowest monthly level.

Disclaimer: This does not mean long-term holders are heavily selling, but it shows their buying momentum has weakened sharply.

This shift is not limited to the oldest holders. Mid-term holders, who have held Solana between one month and three months, have also been reducing their exposure. Their share of total supply fell from 19.52% on January 25 to about 14.08% on February 24. This represents a 27.9% relative decline in their supply share in just one month.

What makes this important is the timing. This reduction persisted even as Solana’s price rose over the past two days. Instead of buying the rebound, many holders appear to be using it as an opportunity to exit.

A 22 Million SOL Supply Wall Is Blocking the Recovery

The lack of strong buying becomes more concerning when combined with Solana’s cost basis distribution data, which reveals where investors last bought their coins.

This data shows a major concentration of supply between $82.81 and $83.79. More than 22.16 million SOL was accumulated in this range. This is one of the largest supply clusters currently sitting above the price.

This range represents a break-even zone for many holders who bought earlier and held through the previous dips. When price returns to their entry level, these investors often sell to recover losses or reduce risk in a weaker market.

This helps explain why Solana’s rebound is already slowing near $82.91. The price is running into a large group of holders waiting to exit at break-even.

At the same time, long-term holder accumulation has already dropped by more than 60%, which means there are fewer strong buyers available to absorb this supply. This imbalance between sellers and buyers makes it harder for the rebound to continue.

Solana Price Path Still Points to a 17% Drop

Solana’s technical structure adds another layer of risk to the current rebound. Before this bounce, Solana confirmed a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern and dropped to around $75.69.

Even after the recent rebound, the projected downside target from that pattern still points toward the $68.71 region. From the current price near $82.52, a drop to $68.71 would represent an additional decline of about 17%. This means the recent 9% bounce has not yet invalidated the broader bearish structure. Moreover, Solana tried to cross the $82.91 mark but failed, largely due to the supply cluster around that level highlighted earlier.

For the recovery to strengthen, Solana must first break and hold above $82.91, which is the immediate resistance created by the supply cluster. If that level is cleared, the next resistance sits near $86.82. A move above $91.33 would fully invalidate the bearish pattern and confirm that the downtrend has ended.

However, continued rejection at $82.91 would increase downside risk.

If Solana falls below $80.89 again, it could quickly retest $74.96. A break below that would reopen the path toward $68.71 and other lower levels, which remain the active downside projection from the bearish pattern.