Monero (XMR) Seeks Rebound But Death Cross Emerges

Monero has faced intense selling pressure over the past month, with the price collapsing nearly 60% in just four weeks. The sharp decline erased weeks of gains and pushed XMR into a sustained downtrend. 

This move signals quickly weakening investor confidence, as long-term holders and short-term traders alike reduce exposure amid broader market stress.

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Monero Traders Are Stepping Back

Derivatives data points to a clear trader exodus from Monero. Open interest has dropped sharply, falling from roughly $279 million in mid-January to about $118 million. This 57% decline reflects reduced participation across futures markets, signaling fading speculative interest in XMR.

Two factors largely explain this contraction. First, profit-taking followed earlier price spikes. Second, bearish market conditions eroded confidence among traders as participants exited positions, and liquidity thinned.

Lower engagement often weakens price support, increasing sensitivity to further selling pressure and volatility.

Despite declining participation, short-term momentum indicators suggest selling pressure may be easing. The Money Flow Index is forming a bullish divergence against the XMR price. While price continues to post lower lows, the MFI has produced higher lows, signaling declining downside momentum.

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This divergence indicates sellers are losing strength, even though the price has not yet responded. Historically, such setups can precede stabilization or short-term recoveries.

While not a guarantee of reversal, the signal suggests XMR may avoid immediate deeper losses if demand stabilizes.

XMR Price Recovery May Be Slow

XMR price is attempting a gradual recovery but lacks strong bullish confirmation. At the time of writing, Monero trades near $326, sitting just below the $335 resistance. Price remains locked within a nearly four-week-long downtrend, limiting upside potential for now.

A breakout above $335 appears challenging under current conditions. The next major resistance stands near $357, which could cap recovery attempts. Without renewed inflows or improving sentiment, XMR is more likely to consolidate within this range as buyers and sellers remain cautious.

Downside risk persists if bearish momentum intensifies. A potential Death Cross could form if the 200-day EMA moves above the 50-day EMA. Such a signal often marks prolonged weakness. Under this scenario, XMR could fall below $291 and slide toward $265 or lower, extending the decline.