Bettors on Polymarket and Kalshi see an interesting path for U.S. President Donald Trump to claim the Nobel Peace Prize. On both platforms, the sitting president holds the second-highest odds, putting him squarely in contention. Prediction Markets Keep Trump in Close Race for Nobel Peace Prize The Nobel Peace Prize is a prestigious international honor […]Bettors on Polymarket and Kalshi see an interesting path for U.S. President Donald Trump to claim the Nobel Peace Prize. On both platforms, the sitting president holds the second-highest odds, putting him squarely in contention. Prediction Markets Keep Trump in Close Race for Nobel Peace Prize The Nobel Peace Prize is a prestigious international honor […]

Trump Emerges as Runner-up in Nobel Peace Prize Betting

3 min read

Bettors on Polymarket and Kalshi see an interesting path for U.S. President Donald Trump to claim the Nobel Peace Prize. On both platforms, the sitting president holds the second-highest odds, putting him squarely in contention.

Prediction Markets Keep Trump in Close Race for Nobel Peace Prize

The Nobel Peace Prize is a prestigious international honor presented each year to an individual or organization recognized for extraordinary efforts to advance peace. Since its inception in 1901, only four U.S. presidents have earned the award: Theodore Roosevelt in 1906, Woodrow Wilson in 1919, Jimmy Carter in 2002, and Barack Obama in 2009.

On prediction markets, traders are betting digital assets on the possibility that Donald Trump, the 45th and 47th U.S. president, will secure the Nobel Peace Prize — though current odds place him in the runner-up position on both Polymarket and Kalshi. On both platforms, Yulia Navalnaya — the Russian economist who chairs the Human Rights Foundation and heads the Advisory Board of the Anti-Corruption Foundation — holds the top spot in the race.

Navalnaya carries an 18% chance of winning on Polymarket, where more than $1 million has been wagered. Over on Kalshi, bettors give her a 25% shot at the Nobel Peace Prize, with $3.1 million riding on the outcome. Trump holds an 11% chance of winning on Polymarket, with supporters often pointing to his diplomatic interventions as justification for a Nobel Peace Prize nod.

On Polymarket, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) holds a 9% chance, down 1%. Alexei Gorinov follows with 4%, slipping 2%. Volodymyr Zelensky sits at 3%, also down 2%, while António Guterres stands at 2%. María Corina Machado shares a 3% probability, gaining 1%, and Greta Thunberg holds 2% this weekend.

On Kalshi, Trump’s odds edge up to 13%. Other contenders for the prize include Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) at 11%, the International Court of Justice at 8% — up 4 points — and Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms at 7%, down 2 points. Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani holds 6%, while Pope Leo XIV, Francesca P. Albanese, and Greta Thunberg each sit at 5%, with Albanese gaining 3 points.

While prediction markets can’t forecast the Nobel Committee’s decision, Trump’s presence near the top of the odds signals a rare blend of political prominence and polarizing debate. His candidacy transforms the prize from a quiet diplomatic honor into a global talking point, ensuring his name will spark conversation regardless of the final announcement.

Market Opportunity
OFFICIAL TRUMP Logo
OFFICIAL TRUMP Price(TRUMP)
$4.111
$4.111$4.111
-0.74%
USD
OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) Live Price Chart
Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact service@support.mexc.com for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.
Tags:

You May Also Like

Trading time: Tonight, the US GDP and the upcoming non-farm data will become the market focus. Institutions are bullish on BTC to $120,000 in the second quarter.

Trading time: Tonight, the US GDP and the upcoming non-farm data will become the market focus. Institutions are bullish on BTC to $120,000 in the second quarter.

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
Share
PANews2025/04/30 13:50
Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade Set for December 3 Mainnet Launch, Blob Capacity to Double

Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade Set for December 3 Mainnet Launch, Blob Capacity to Double

Ethereum developers confirmed the Fusaka upgrade will activate on mainnet on December 3, 2025, following a systematic testnet rollout beginning on October 1 on Holesky. The major hard fork will implement around 11-12 Ethereum Improvement Proposals targeting scalability, node efficiency, and data availability improvements without adding new user-facing features. According to Christine Kim, the upgrade introduces a phased blob capacity expansion through Blob Parameter Only forks occurring two weeks after Fusaka activation. Initially maintaining current blob limits of 6/9 target/max, the first BPO fork will increase capacity to 10/15 blobs one week later. A second BPO fork will further expand limits to 14/21 blobs, more than doubling total capacity within two weeks. Strategic Infrastructure Overhaul Fusaka prioritizes backend protocol improvements over user-facing features, focusing on making Ethereum faster and less resource-intensive. The upgrade includes PeerDAS implementation through EIP-7594, allowing validator nodes to verify data by sampling small pieces rather than downloading entire blobs. This reduces bandwidth and storage requirements while enhancing Layer 2 rollup scalability. The upgrade builds on recent gas limit increases from 30 million to 45 million gas, with ongoing discussions for further expansion. EIP-7935 proposes increasing limits to 150 million gas, potentially enabling significantly higher transaction throughput. These improvements complement broader scalability efforts, including EIP-9698, which suggests a 100x gas limit increase over two years to reach 2,000 transactions per second. Fusaka removes the previously planned EVM Object Format redesign to reduce complexity while maintaining focus on essential infrastructure improvements. The upgrade introduces bounded base fees for blob transactions via EIP-7918, creating more predictable transaction costs for data-heavy applications. Enhanced spam resistance and security improvements strengthen network resilience against scalability bottlenecks and attacks. Technical Implementation and Testing Timeline The Fusaka rollout follows a conservative four-phase approach across Ethereum testnets before mainnet deployment. Holesky upgrade occurs October 1, followed by Sepolia on October 14 and Hoodi on October 28. Each testnet will undergo the complete BPO fork sequence to validate the blob capacity expansion mechanism. BPO forks activate automatically based on predetermined epochs rather than requiring separate hard fork processes. On mainnet, the first BPO fork launches December 17, increasing blob capacity to 10/15 target/max. The second BPO fork activates January 7, 2026, reaching the final capacity of 14/21 blobs. This automated approach enables flexible blob scaling without requiring full network upgrades. Notably, node operators face release deadlines ranging from September 25 for Holesky to November 3 for mainnet preparation. The staggered timeline, according to the developers, allows comprehensive testing while giving infrastructure providers sufficient preparation time. Speculatively, the developers use this backward-compatible approach to ensure smooth transitions with minimal disruption to existing applications. PeerDAS implementation reduces node resource demands, potentially increasing network decentralization by lowering barriers for smaller operators. The technology enables more efficient data availability sampling, crucial for supporting growing Layer 2 rollup adoption. Overall, these improvements, combined with increased gas limits, will enable Ethereum to handle higher transaction volumes while maintaining security guarantees. Addressing Network Scalability Pressures The Fusaka upgrade addresses mounting pressure for Ethereum base layer improvements amid criticism of Layer 2 fragmentation strategies. Critics argue that reliance on rollups has created isolated chains with limited interoperability, complicating user experiences. The upgrade’s focus on infrastructure improvements aims to enhance base layer capacity while supporting continued Layer 2 growth. The recent validator queue controversy particularly highlights ongoing network scalability challenges. According to a Cryptonews report covered yesterday, currently, over 2M ETH sits in exit queues facing 43-day delays, while entry queues process in just 7 days.Ethereum Validator Queue (Source: ValidatorQueue) However, Vitalik Buterin defended these delays as essential for network security, comparing validator commitments to military service requiring “friction in quitting.” The upgrade coincides with growing institutional interest in Ethereum infrastructure, with VanEck predicting that Layer 2 networks could reach $1 trillion market capitalization within six years. Fusaka’s emphasis on data availability and node efficiency supports Ethereum’s evolution toward seamless cross-chain interoperability. The upgrade complements initiatives like the Open Intents Framework, where Coinbase Payments recently joined as a core contributor. The initiative, if successful, will address the $21B surge in cross-chain crime. These coordinated efforts aim to unify the fragmented multichain experience while maintaining Ethereum’s security and decentralization principles
Share
CryptoNews2025/09/19 16:37
VectorUSA Achieves Fortinet’s Engage Preferred Services Partner Designation

VectorUSA Achieves Fortinet’s Engage Preferred Services Partner Designation

TORRANCE, Calif., Feb. 3, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — VectorUSA, a trusted technology solutions provider, specializes in delivering integrated IT, security, and infrastructure
Share
AI Journal2026/02/05 00:02