BTC Technical Analysis Feb 5

Bitcoin’s market structure is currently exhibiting a clear downtrend with LH/LL pattern; consolidating at the 72,370 level with a 4.84% drop in the last 24 hours. A close above critical resistance levels is expected for structure break (BOS), otherwise bearish momentum may continue.

Market Structure Overview

Bitcoin’s current market structure carries the characteristics of a classic downtrend. Instead of Higher Highs/Higher Lows (HH/HL), the Lower Highs/Lower Lows (LH/LL) pattern dominates; after rejection from the last swing high at 76,971, the price pulled back toward the 71,908 swing low. This structure is consistent across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 1D shows 1 support/3 resistances, 3D shows 1S/2R, 1W shows 3S/3R distribution. Supertrend gives a bearish signal (resistance 82,981), trading below EMA20 (83,121). Although RSI at 22.37 is in oversold territory, MACD confirms bearish momentum with a negative histogram. Short-term outlook is bearish, but there are 10 strong levels in MTF that could trigger a trend change.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, HH/HL structure is essential: consecutive higher highs and higher lows must form. This is absent currently; the last potential HL candidate held at 71,908, but a close above 76,648 is needed for a new HH. RSI oversold (22.37) could give a divergence signal, but without EMA20 breakout, bullish continuation remains weak. To reach the 94,000 structural target, breaking the 76k-87k resistance zone is mandatory first. In the current structure, bullish signals are limited, with only short-term bounces observed.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is clear with LH/LL: from the last swing high at 76,971 to a lower high at 76,648, and swing lows pulling back to 71,908. This signals a bearish BOS before Change of Character (CHoCH). MACD bearish crossover and negative histogram support the momentum. There’s convergence to the lower band in the 24h range of 71,680-76,971. For LH/LL continuation, monitor the 71,908 breakout; this level becomes a bearish BOS (score 88/100) and opens the 51,000 structural target. Even if oversold RSI bounces, the overall structure maintains bearish bias.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

Structure break (Break of Structure – BOS) is the key to trend change. For bullish BOS, critical resistances: 73,240 (score 64/100), 76,648 (67/100), and 87,775 (62/100). A daily close above these levels invalidates the LH/LL structure and signals a shift to HH/HL. Conversely, bearish BOS occurs with a 71,908 swing low breakout (score 88/100); this creates a new LL and strengthens the downtrend. Supertrend resistance at 82,981 is also a major BOS level. Monitor 1W resistances (around 87k) in MTF; without breakout, trend reversal remains weak. BOS levels should be confirmed with displacement beyond swing points.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: 76,971 (24h high, rejection point), 76,648 (previous LH, score 67/100), 73,240 (short-term RH), 87,775 (major weekly high, score 62/100). These levels act as resistances in the bearish structure; retests could create short opportunities. Without a 76,648 breakout, no HH forms, so the downtrend remains intact. The importance of swing highs is as BOS references: breakout makes trend continuation bullish.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: 71,908 (strong support, score 88/100), 71,680 (24h low). These levels support the LL pattern; breakout brings bearish displacement. Previous lows align with 1D/3D supports in MTF. Breaking swing lows confirms bearish CHoCH, targeting 51k. If held, a bounce could test 73k resistance. Swing points are the building blocks of structure analysis: they define HH/HL vs LH/LL.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL downtrend dominates, price trapped below EMA20 and at Supertrend resistance. Short-term, if 71,908 holds, bounce to 73-76k range; if broken, path to 51k structural low. For bullish invalidation, 76,648+ BOS is required; this would be a bullish CHoCH. MTF balance (10 levels) could increase volatility, RSI oversold bounce risk exists but MACD is bearish. Traders should follow BTC Spot Analysis for spot and BTC Futures Analysis for futures. Structure analysis is price action focused: don’t predict, monitor levels. In the current setup, bearish bias is strong, careful risk management is essential.