ETH Technical Analysis Feb 4

Ethereum, approaching the critical support line at 2.264$ with RSI dropping to 26 indicating the oversold region, is sparking hopes for short-term recovery, but traders should remain cautious as the overall downtrend continues.

Market Outlook and Current Situation

The Ethereum market is trading at 2.264$ with a 1.64% drop over the last 24 hours, squeezed into a daily range of 2.110$ – 2.355$. Volume remains strong at 34.69 billion$, but the overall trend is downward. This movement parallels Bitcoin’s 2.15% losses, with pressure on altcoins also affecting Ethereum. In terms of market capitalization, ETH still holds its position as the leading layer-1 protocol, but recent weakness is testing investor confidence.

Looking at the latest news, comments from Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin on Layer-2 solutions stand out. Buterin emphasized that the original vision for L2s should focus on bringing new innovations rather than excessive scalability, sharing his vision for the ecosystem’s future. This statement energized the market on February 3 but did not create a lasting impact on price. For detailed analysis of Ethereum’s spot market detaylı analiz, the volume increase could signal potential consolidation, as traders tighten positions in futures trading.

In a multi-timeframe (MTF) context, a total of 12 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, similar distribution on 3D, and 3 supports/2 resistances on 1W. This convergence indicates that ETH is seeking a base around 2.200$ in the short term. Although overall market sentiment is bearish, oversold conditions are increasing rebound potential.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Support Zones

Ethereum’s strongest support level is at 2.110$ (score: 77/100), tested as the low of the last 24 hours, and a break below here could open the door to a deeper correction. This level overlaps with a volume-based accumulation zone on 1D and 3D timeframes, making buyer intervention likely. The next support is at 2.233$ (score: 69/100); this point aligns with the EMA21 and a Fibonacci retracement level, potentially providing short-term relief if it holds. Traders should monitor these supports via ETH futures in the derivatives market, as leveraged positions could trigger volume.

From an MTF convergence perspective, lower supports on the 1W chart could make a drop below 2.000$ difficult, but if current momentum targets this area, risk increases. The volume profile in support zones suggests a potential V-shaped recovery, though confirmation via close is needed.

Resistance Barriers

The first resistance is positioned at 2.344$ (score: 79/100); this is the high of the last 24 hours and just below the EMA20. A breakout could trigger short-term bullish momentum, but the Supertrend resistance at 2.758$ forms a stronger barrier. The upper resistance at 3.386$ (score: 62/100) aligns with the 1W pivot point, and surpassing it could signal a trend reversal.

Weakness in resistances combined with RSI’s oversold reading increases the likelihood of an upside test, but MACD’s negative histogram supports sellers. These levels offer ideal entry/exit points for swing traders.

Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength

RSI at 26.48 is in the oversold region (below 30), a classic signal for short-term recovery. Historically, similar RSI levels on ETH have resulted in 10-15% rebounds, but they may not be sustainable as long as trend strength remains weak. MACD is bearish; the negative histogram is widening, and a crossover below the signal line has been confirmed, reinforcing downward momentum.

EMAs show a bearish structure: Price is below EMA20 (2.724$), distancing from EMA50 and EMA200. Supertrend is bearish, pointing to 2.758$ resistance. Bollinger Bands are contracting, with a volatility explosion expected. Overall trend strength is moderate at around 25 on the ADX indicator; downside is dominant but showing exhaustion signs. This combination highlights a consolidation or mild rebound scenario.

On multi-timeframe, 3D RSI is approaching 35 and neutralizing, while 1W is supported in the 40s. Indicators advise patience for traders: Impulsive longs are risky.

Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook

From a risk/reward perspective, bullish target is 3.000$ (approx. 32% upside), bearish at 1.000$ (55% downside). If 2.110$ support holds, R/R could reach 1:2, but a break favors short opportunities. Volatility is high; stop-losses should be placed above support. Market outlook is cautiously bearish, awaiting confirmation from BTC for recovery.

In a positive scenario, Vitalik’s L2 comments could trigger ecosystem hype, breaking 2.344$ and paving the way to 2.700$. In a negative case, a BTC drop accelerates descent below 2.110$ toward 2.000$. Traders should size positions by monitoring ETH spot market data. Overall outlook: Neutral-bearish short-term, opportunistic for bottom hunters medium-term.

Bitcoin Correlation

Ethereum moves in 0.85% correlation with Bitcoin; BTC’s downtrend is pressuring ETH. BTC is weak with a 2.15% drop from 76.346$, main supports at 75.474$, 72.912$, and 61.211$. Holding these levels would give ETH breathing room, while a break drags ETH to 2.000$. Resistances at 77.864$, 82.178$, and 89.425$; a BTC rise here would trigger a 2.500$ test in ETH.

BTC Dominance increase crushes altcoins, while Supertrend’s bearish signal makes ETH longs risky. If BTC holds above 75.474$, ETH supports strengthen; otherwise, correlated downside accelerates. Altcoin traders should prioritize BTC levels.