APT Weekly Analysis Feb 3

APT, despite its limited weekly rise of 0.71%, is consolidating in a narrow range ($1.25-$1.30) within the main downtrend; although RSI 30.85 gives an oversold signal, the risk of deep correction increases if $1.14 support breaks.

Weekly Market Summary for APT

APT closed the week at the current $1.27 level with a 0.71% increase, but in the broader market context, it remains in a cautious position for altcoins under Bitcoin’s downtrend dominance. The weekly trading range is stuck between $1.25-$1.30, volume profile remained low at $55.22M, raising the question of accumulation or distribution. Market structure continues to remain bearish below EMA20 ($1.50); MACD negative histogram confirms momentum decline. Long-term downtrend filters are active, recovery will remain limited without breaking $1.61 resistance. This week, multi-timeframe confluences highlight the critical support at $1.1410 (77/100 score), this is the inflection point that will determine the trend’s fate.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

The long-term trend structure exhibits a clear downtrend character; higher highs/higher lows structure is broken on weekly and monthly charts. While the primary trend is defined as bearish, price continues to stay below EMA20 ($1.50) and EMA50. This signals the continuation of the distribution phase – especially after rejection at $1.61. In the market cycle context, APT has experienced nearly 80% correction from 2025 highs and currently has potential to approach cycle lows. The trend remains solid as long as price holds $1.1410 support; in case of breakdown, it could gain momentum toward $0.4596 downside target (22 score). In macro context, rising Bitcoin dominance delays altcoin rotation.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Volume profile at low levels ($55.22M) and price range contraction may be starting to show accumulation phase characteristics – RSI 30.85 in oversold region with divergence potential. However, as MACD bearish histogram widens, distribution patterns are emerging: selling pressure visible around upper range $1.30. According to Wyckoff methodology, this could be a secondary test phase; if spring test around $1.25 succeeds, accumulation strengthens. Distribution risk increases with rejection at $1.2893 resistance. Overall, market phase is a ‘re-accumulation’ attempt but downtrend filters dominate.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily chart, 1S/2R confluence: support $1.1410 (77 score) strong, resistances $1.2893 (63) and $1.3845 (60). Price below EMA20, short-term bearish; RSI divergence signals bounce but MACD crossover on hold. Market structure with lower highs keeps downtrend intact; if $1.25 support breaks, daily bearish acceleration.

Weekly Chart View

On weekly, 1S/2R structure dominant: $1.1410 major support, $1.61 main resistance. Weekly candle doji-like, showing indecision; Supertrend bearish filter active. Price below long-term EMAs, in test phase for accumulation – confluence supports with 9 strong levels (1D/3D/1W breakdown). For trend change, weekly close above $1.3845 required.

Critical Decision Points

Key levels will define direction: Support $1.1410 (77 score, multi-TF confluence), breakdown opens $0.4596 risk. Resistance $1.2893 (63), then $1.3845 (60) – breakout opens path to $1.8864 upside objective (6 score). $1.61 psychological barrier for downtrend breakdown. Watch: Volume spikes and BTC movements.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Bullish Case

Bullish scenario: Long position with daily close above $1.2893, targets $1.3845 / $1.8864. Stop-loss below $1.1410; R/R 1:3+ strategic. Volume increase required for accumulation confirmation, BTC above $79k supportive. For position traders, scale-in on $1.25 rebound.

In Bearish Case

Bearish scenario: $1.1410 breakdown short trigger, target $0.4596. Stop above $1.2893; high R/R. Weekly close below for distribution confirmation. Altcoin caution mode, monitor BTC dominance.

Bitcoin Correlation

APT highly correlated with BTC (0.85+); BTC in downtrend at $78,459, supports $77,615/$74,604 critical. If BTC fails to break $79,295 resistance, altcoin pressure increases – Supertrend bearish BTC dominance pulls APT down. BTC breakdown below $74k accelerates APT $1.14 test; above $81k offers rotation opportunity. Key BTC levels: Watch $77k support and $79k resistance.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week focus: $1.1410 support test and $1.2893 resistance reaction. BTC below $77k risks altcoin dump; RSI bounce + volume confluence for bullish flip. Follow detailed APT spot analysis and APT futures market data. Strategic patience: Trend down, wait for inflection. Follow updates for APT and other analyses.