ONDO Technical Analysis Feb 1

ONDO is approaching critical support levels within the general downtrend; although RSI is in the oversold region, MACD and Supertrend are giving bearish signals. Short-term recovery potential is limited, BTC correlation is creating the dominant effect.

Executive Summary

ONDO’s technical chart, as of February 1, 2026, reflects a clear downtrend dominance. While the price is trading at $0.29, it has squeezed into the $0.26-$0.30 range with a 24-hour %5.33 drop; although RSI below 29 gives an oversold signal, MACD negative histogram and Supertrend resistance at $0.37 continue the bearish pressure. Critical support at $0.2560 (strength score 75/100) is being tested, resistances strong at $0.3152 and $0.3680; 9 major levels (mostly resistances) dominate in multi-timeframe. Bitcoin’s similar downtrend (%5.29 drop) is creating pressure on altcoins, risk/reward ratio shifting to bearish targets ($0.1136). Strategically, a break below $0.2560 increases short opportunities, while a close above $0.3152 is expected for an oversold bounce.

Market Structure and Trend Status

Current Trend Analysis

ONDO is moving within a clear downtrend on weekly and daily timeframes. The price remains below EMA20 ($0.34), with short-term bearish momentum dominant. The Supertrend indicator is in bearish mode and forming dynamic resistance at $0.37; this level acts as the main barrier where recent rallies have been rejected. On the 1D chart, no higher lows are forming, while lower highs confirm the trend’s continuation. On 3D and 1W, the price has slipped below the 50% Fibonacci retracement within a deeper bearish channel. The overall structure indicates nearly 80% correction from 2025 highs ($1.50+), but oversold conditions may trigger a local bottom search.

Structural Levels

Main structural supports are concentrated at $0.2560 (75/100 strength score, 1D/3D confluence) and the $0.22 region below; this aligns with the major swing low on 1W. Resistances are lined up at $0.3152 (66/100, short-term pivot), $0.3680 (66/100, EMA50 confluence), and $0.42. Multi-timeframe analysis shows 9 strong levels: 1D (1 support/2 resistances), 3D (1S/1R), 1W (2S/4R). This asymmetry reveals that upward movements will remain limited and strengthens the bearish bias. A break below $0.2560 could target the lower channel band ($0.20).

Technical Indicators Report

Momentum Indicators

RSI(14) at 29.09 is in the oversold region (below 30), carrying local recovery potential without divergence signal; however, trend change remains weak without crossing above 50. MACD line is below the signal line, with the negative histogram expanding – bearish momentum is increasing. Stochastic is stuck in the 20s, Williams %R in the -90s; both indicate short-term exhaustion, but fakeout risk is high within the downtrend. Overall momentum confluence is bearish; even with RSI at bottom, selling pressure is dominant.

Trend Indicators

EMA stack is bearish: Price below EMA20 ($0.34), EMA50 ($0.41), and EMA200 ($0.52). Death cross (EMA20/50) confirmed, Supertrend ATR-based bearish flip completed. Price below Ichimoku cloud, Tenkan/Kijun cross downward. Parabolic SAR dots above giving sell signal. All trend indicators support the downtrend; reclaim above EMA20 requires a close at $0.3152.

Critical Support and Resistance Analysis

Supports: $0.2560 (75/100, volume profile high + 1D low, opens path to $0.22 on break), $0.22 (1W support), $0.18 (psychological + 3D low). Resistances: $0.3152 (66/100, pivot + EMA21), $0.3680 (66/100, Supertrend + 50% Fib), $0.42 (EMA200 confluence). These levels are derived from 9 multi-TF confluences; abundance of resistances (7/9) restricts upside potential. Price neutral at $0.29, but $0.2560 critical at $0.26 test – volume increase required for hold, cascade risk on break.

Volume and Market Participation

24h volume at $128.85M is medium level, but decreasing volume in downtrend does not weaken bearish conviction – on the contrary, consolidation signal. OBV declining, CMF negative (selling pressure), VWAP above $0.31 with price below. Volume low within range ($0.26-0.30), $150M+ spike expected for breakout. Comparatively distant from peak volumes ($500M+); participation weak, may indicate institutional selling. No volume divergence, trend continuation likely.

Risk Assessment

Risk/reward profile bearish: Bullish target $0.4559 (score 30/100, RR 1:1.57 up), bearish $0.1136 (22/100, RR 1:6.1 down). From $0.29, short entry with $0.3152 stop targets $0.2560 offering RR 1:3+; for long, $0.2560 hold + RSI>40 required, RR limited. Main risks: BTC downtrend deepening (corr +0.85), low liquidity traps, macro Fed pressure. Volatility 8.5% (high), position size 1-2% recommendation. Oversold bounce probability 35%, but structural bias down (65%).

Bitcoin Correlation

ONDO shows high correlation with BTC (+0.87, 30D); while BTC at $78,646 experiences similar 5.29% drop with Supertrend bearish. BTC supports at $78,780/$75,720/$64,655 if broken drag ONDO to $0.25/$0.22. BTC resistances above $80,317/$83,160 rally triggers $0.35 test in ONDO. BTC dominance increase delays altcoin rotation – monitor BTC above $80K for ONDO, caution below.

Conclusion and Strategic Outlook

ONDO’s comprehensive technical chart points to a risky profile under downtrend dominance: Oversold RSI offers local bounce, but multi-indicator bearish confluence (MACD, Supertrend, EMAs) and BTC correlation sustain selling pressure. If critical $0.2560 support not held, $0.1136 bear target realistic; for bullish, $0.3152 breakout + BTC $80K required. Strategy: Short bias (70% probability), shorts $0.29-$0.31 targeting $0.2560; longs above $0.2560. Follow detailed trade setups in ONDO Spot Analysis and ONDO Futures Analysis. In neutral news flow, patience and risk management essential – full picture bearish, early longs risky.