Why the Bitcoin Bull Cycle Isn’t Over: On-Chain Data Reveals

• Realized cap reaches new highs, showing sustained capital inflows despite Bitcoin’s extended consolidation.
• Long-term holders shift from distribution to accumulation after failed selling pressure in late 2025.
• Bitcoin holds near $87,600 support as traders target liquidity around the $91,180 resistance zone.

Bitcoin might look stagnant at first glance, but beneath the surface, something interesting is going on. 

At press time, BTC traded at $87,781 with $49.58 billion in daily volume. While the price dipped 1.74% in 24 hours and 2.43% over the week, on-chain data tells a different story. Several key metrics suggest the current bull cycle has more room to run.

Fresh Capital Floods the Network

Bitcoin’s realized cap lately hit new all-time highs, CryptosRus reported. This matters because realized cap measures actual dollars invested in the network, not just speculative price swings. 

Real money keeps pouring in even while traders debate whether the top is in. The distinction is crucial: price can stagnate while genuine adoption accelerates underneath.

This divergence between price action and capital inflows often precedes major moves. 

When new money enters during consolidation phases, it builds pressure that eventually breaks one way or another. History shows these periods of accumulation tend to resolve upward rather than down.

The Failed BTC Distribution That Changed Everything

Something remarkable happened in late 2025. Long-term holders, the veterans who’ve weathered multiple cycles, attempted to distribute their coins. 

They started selling into strength, expecting others to follow. But the market absorbed every coin they threw at it.

CryptosRus highlighted this failed distribution as a pivotal moment. The selling pressure simply evaporated as buyers stepped up aggressively. Now those same long-term holders have reversed course entirely. 

They’ve flipped back to accumulation mode, adding to positions instead of reducing them.

When experienced investors fail to exit and then start buying again, it sends a powerful signal. These holders understand Bitcoin’s cycles better than most. Their collective behavior suggests they see value here, not danger.

Sideways Doesn’t Mean Bearish

Market analyst, Daan Crypto Trades, pointed out that Bitcoin has chopped between $80,000 and $120,000 for nearly 1.5 years. 

Meanwhile, other risk assets rocketed higher. The recent correction measured 36% from peak to trough, which sounds brutal but remains modest by crypto standards.

The comparison to other assets tells an incomplete story, though. 

Bitcoin’s consolidation came as the dollar weakened significantly. Measuring performance in weakening currency makes relative returns harder to judge. What looks like underperformance might actually represent impressive resilience.

Another top analyst, Lennaert Snyder, identified key support at $87,600 that Bitcoin defended after the latest Fed meeting. 

Statistical patterns suggest Thursdays rarely see weekly lows violated. This technical observation aligns with broader on-chain strength. The market structure shows absorption, not capitulation.

What Comes Next For Bitcoin

Snyder outlined a potential path forward with targets around $91,180, where liquidity concentrates. 

A sweep below current lows followed by a quick reversal would actually strengthen the bullish case. Markets often shake out weak hands before significant moves higher.

The technical setup mirrors past consolidation periods that preceded major rallies. Distribution attempts by smart money failed. Supply left the market without crashing the price. New capital continues entering despite sideways action.

CryptosRus summarized it bluntly: this looks like consolidation before continuation, not a cycle top. 

The combination of rising realized cap, failed distribution, and renewed accumulation by long-term holders forms a compelling narrative. These ingredients don’t guarantee upside, but they’ve historically preceded it.

Bitcoin’s ability to hold $87,600 support while digesting heavy selling pressure demonstrates underlying strength. 

The 24-hour trading volume of nearly $50 billion shows sustained interest despite recent weakness. As 2026 unfolds, the pieces appear positioned for another leg higher.

The cycle might feel exhausted after months of chop. On-chain data suggests otherwise. Real money flows in, experienced holders accumulate, and technical support holds firm. 

Whether this resolves into a major rally remains uncertain, but the foundation looks solid.

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