Trading Moment: Gold and silver are approaching the $5,000 and $100 marks respectively; Bitcoin and Ethereum are generally viewed as bearish in the short term.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Trump's policy moves have become a core source of market uncertainty. His wavering on the Greenland sovereignty issue and his tariff threats against Europe, while ultimately easing tensions with a framework agreement, have significantly shaken global investors' confidence in dollar assets. Against this backdrop, the global trend of "de-dollarization" is becoming increasingly apparent, with central banks and sovereign wealth funds in many countries accelerating the diversification of their foreign exchange reserves. India's holdings of US Treasury bonds have fallen to a five-year low, down 26% from their 2023 peak, with US Treasury bonds accounting for only one-third of its foreign exchange reserves, while India continues to increase its gold holdings. This move echoes the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan's reduction of its exposure to the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, and the Greenland Pension Fund's consideration of withdrawing from the US stock market, both reflecting market concerns about US policy risks.

These concerns fueled a surge in safe-haven asset prices, with gold nearing the $5,000 mark, up 14.72% year-to-date; silver was just shy of the $100 mark, reaching a high of $99.375, a 38.32% increase year-to-date. Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 gold price target to $5,400, noting that in addition to central bank purchases, the "sticky" long-term allocation by the private sector to hedge macroeconomic risks has become a new force driving up gold prices. Meanwhile, natural gas prices in the US surged 63% in a week due to an extreme cold wave, reaching their highest level since December 2022, but have since retreated somewhat. At the same time, the Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.75%, but the surge in its government bond yields is being interpreted by the market as a pressure signal. On the corporate front, Intel released its earnings report after the market closed; although fourth-quarter results exceeded expectations, weak first-quarter guidance due to supply bottlenecks caused its stock price to plummet by more than 13% in after-hours trading.

Since recently falling to a low of around $87,200, Bitcoin has been consolidating around $90,000. Delphi Digital analyst that1618guy points out that Bitcoin is currently negatively correlated with the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds. Many analysts consider $90,300 a key resistance level, while $87,000 has become a widely watched support area. Trader Eugene has liquidated his positions due to unfavorable high-cycle patterns and is bearish on the market outlook. He stated that he had hoped BTC would break $100,000 at the start of the year, but this expectation now seems unlikely. Killa predicts the price will fall back to the $84-$86 range; Man of Bitcoin believes that if the price can hold above $87,256, it may be at the high point of wave 4 or about to break through, with resistance at $91,616; while Jelle believes that if it falls below $87,200, it may return to $80,000, and a break above $93,000 is needed to confirm an upward trend. Glassnode analysis indicates that short-term holders (with a cost basis of approximately $98,400) are facing selling pressure, while holders with positions held for 3-6 months (with a cost basis of approximately $112,600) have increased their selling pressure as prices have risen, creating upward resistance. Global fund managers' cash allocation ratios have fallen to a record low of 3.2%, meaning the market is operating at full capacity. In the event of a negative shock, the lack of buffer funds could trigger a chain reaction of selling, increasing market vulnerability.

Regarding Ethereum, although the price briefly rebounded above $3,000, weak market demand poses a serious technical challenge. Coinglass data shows that a break below $2,850 would trigger $771 million in long position liquidations, while a break above $3,050 would face $1.083 billion in short position liquidations. Capriole Investments data shows that Ethereum's apparent demand has fallen to a 10-month low, similar to levels before the March 2025 crash. Man of Bitcoin points out that ETH is maintaining a triangle pattern, and a break below $2,867 would be a danger signal; Batman warns that the current $2,800-$3,000 area is the "last line of defense," and a breach could trigger a bearish flag target of $1,850. However, there are also positive signals in the market. Kriptoholder observes a dense wall of institutional buy orders in the $2,500-$2,600 range, and mortgage giant Newrez's announcement of accepting ETH as proof of asset is seen as a significant step towards mainstream adoption.

In the altcoin market, the prediction market project Space has been embroiled in a serious controversy over oversubscription, raising $20 million, far exceeding its $2.5 million target. The team stated that it would retain approximately $14 million and only refund a portion of the funds. This behavior has been deemed malicious by the community, drawing comparisons to the previously controversial Trove project.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on January 23)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $89,596 (year-to-date +2.2%), daily spot trading volume $39.03 billion.

• Ethereum: $2,945 (-0.46% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $29.06 billion.

• Fear of Greed Index: 24 (Panic)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 59.2%, ETH 11.8%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: ELSA, AXS, XRP, BTC, IP

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.91% / 51.09%

• Sector Performance: The overall crypto market declined, with only GameFi, AI, and RWA sectors showing relative resilience.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 92,770 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $174 million. This included $35.3598 million in BTC liquidations, $50.3 million in ETH liquidations, and $6.1961 million in SOL liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of January 22)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$32.1081 million, marking the fourth consecutive day of net outflows.

• Ethereum ETF: -$41.9772 million, marking the third consecutive day of net outflows.

• XRP ETF: +$2.09 million

• SOL ETF: +$1.71 million

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance will delist several leveraged trading pairs, including YGG/BTC, on January 23.

• Meteora: MET airdrop claims will close on January 23.

• Kaito AI will be available for sale on Bitway Capital Launchpad on January 24.

• SOON will unlock approximately 21.88 million tokens on January 23 at 4:30 PM, representing 5.63% of the circulating supply, with a value of approximately $7.4 million.

• Animecoin (ANIME) will unlock approximately 835 million tokens at 9 PM on January 23, representing 13.84% of the circulating supply, worth approximately $6.3 million.

• SoSoValue (SOSO) will unlock approximately 13.33 million tokens on January 24 at 5 PM, representing 5.00% of the circulating supply, with a value of approximately $7.4 million.

• Humanity (H) will unlock approximately 105 million tokens on January 25th at 8:00 AM, representing 4.57% of the circulating supply, with a value of approximately $19.3 million.

• Plasma (XPL) will unlock approximately 88.89 million tokens on January 25th at 8 PM, representing 4.33% of the circulating supply, worth approximately $12.4 million.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: LayerZero up 23.6%, Rain up 11.2%, Lighter up 5.8%, River up 4.1%, and Monero up 4%.

5. Hot News

• World Liberty Financial partners with encrypted satellite company Spacecoin and swaps tokens.

• Bitmine pledged an additional 171,264 ETH, bringing the total pledged amount to approximately $5.73 billion.

• YZi Labs has made a strategic investment in BitGo's IPO.

• USD.AI approves up to $500 million in GPU funding for Sharon AI.

• UBS believes the renminbi could account for 10% of global reserves.

• Trump: 25% tariffs to be imposed on all countries trading with Iran

• Michael Saylor: Considering buying more Bitcoin

• Hyperliquid Strategies has accumulated approximately $67.6 million worth of HYPE tokens since early December.

• Mirana Ventures' associated wallet deposited 13.65 million MNT into Bybit, worth $12.2 million.

• South Korean prosecutors lost a large sum of seized Bitcoin, with losses potentially reaching $48 million.