The NBA’s Most Improved Player Race Is Focused On The Wrong Players

At the halfway point of the 2025-26 NBA season, there’s no shortage of candidates for the league’s Most Improved Player award.

Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija is currently the betting favorite at -180, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, although Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson is close behind him at +260. Utah Jazz guard Keyonte George (+1200) is a distant third, while Hawks guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker (+2500) and Brooklyn Nets forward Michael Porter Jr. (+4000) round out the top five.

Both Avdija and Johnson are having breakout seasons and figure to be heading to their first All-Star Game in mid-February. Avdija is one of only three players this season averaging at least 25 points, seven rebounds and six assists per game, joining MVP candidates Nikola Jokić and Luka Dončić, while Johnson and Jokić are the only two players averaging at least 22 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists. They’re each smashing their previous career highs in virtually every statistical category.

However, both had also shown flashes of this potential in the past. Johnson averaged 18.9 points, 10.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game last season before suffering a torn labrum in his left shoulder that ended his year in January. Avdija averaged 23.3 points, 9.7 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game in 20 appearances after the All-Star break last year. Calling either of them the league’s Most Improved Player is a tacit admission that voters weren’t paying attention to what they were doing previously.

Instead, voters should turn their gaze further down the odds leaderboard, as there are some genuine out-of-nowhere breakouts happening this year.

The NBA’s Young Guard Is Rising

To some extent, Keyonte George fits a similar mold as Johnson and Avdija. After all, he averaged 16.8 points, 5.6 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 2.6 three-pointers per game last year, albeit for a Jazz team that was circling the drain on another lost season. He’s up to 23.8 points, 6.8 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 2.5 threes per game this year, but he’s also drastically ratcheted up his shooting efficiency.

In each of George’s first two seasons, he shot 39.1% from the field and below 34.5% from three-point range. This season, he’s up to 45.9% overall and 37.1% from deep. He’s also knocking down a career-high 90.6% of his free-throw attempts and is averaging 7.0 trips to the charity stripe per game. As a result, his effective field-goal percentage jumped from 48.5% last year to 53.5% this season.

If that isn’t a staggering enough leap for some voters, they should instead turn their attention to the Orlando Magic, where third-year guard Anthony Black is finally breaking out. The No. 6 overall pick in the 2023 NBA draft didn’t make much of an impact over his first two seasons, but he’s averaging a career-high 15.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.6 threes and 1.3 steals while shooting better than ever (46.7% overall).

Some voters might be inclined to exclude Black from consideration for Most Improved Player since he was a mid-lottery pick, although that draft range is no guarantee of future stardom. For every eventual superstar like Damian Lillard and Larry Bird, there’s a draft bust like Jonny Flynn, Jan Vesely, Yi Jianlian or Jarrett Culver. Black might not deserve to be the leading candidate for MIP, but his draft status shouldn’t disqualify him entirely. (He’s currently tied with Porter at +4000.)

For an even longer shot, what about Miami Heat forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. (+25000)? After finishing fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2023-24, Jaquez backslid last season, raising questions about whether his impressive debut was a flash in the pan. He’s quieted those concerns this year by averaging a career-high 15.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.6 assists in 28.8 minutes per game off the bench.

The Out-Of-Nowhere Candidates

If recent first-round picks aren’t your cup of tea, there are a few completely out-of-nowhere breakouts worth highlighting as well. Take Milwaukee Bucks guard Ryan Rollins, who’s +6000 in the MIP race, for instance.

Over his first three NBA seasons, which he split between the Bucks, Golden State Warriors and Washington Wizards, Rollins averaged 5.1 points, 1.6 rebounds and 1.5 assists while starting in only 19 of the 81 games in which he appeared. This year, he’s averaging 16.2 points, 5.5 assists and 4.6 rebounds and has already started in 36 games.

Rollins’ teammate, Giannis Antetokounmpo, told reporters in late November that he had never seen a breakout like what Rollins is having this year.

Phoenix Suns guard Collin Gillespie, who’s currently +10000 in MIP odds, is experiencing a similar rise. Gillespie originally signed a two-way contract with the Denver Nuggets after going undrafted in the 2022 NBA draft. He missed what would be his entire rookie season with a leg fracture, and he played only 225 minutes for Denver across 24 appearances during the 2023-24 campaign.

Gillespie proceeded to sign a two-way deal with the Suns in July 2024, although he played sparingly last season as well. With Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal no longer in town this year, though, he’s averaging a career-high 13.2 points, 4.9 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 2.9 three-pointers and 1.5 steals in 28.1 minutes per game.

As for a more recent breakout, Nuggets wing Peyton Watson (+7500) has taken advantage of injuries to Christian Braun and Cam Johnson in a well-timed contract year. Over his past 12 games heading into Sunday, Watson averaged 21.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.9 threes and 1.2 steals while shooting 51.6% overall and 41.8% from deep.

A 12-game sample size isn’t enough to vault Watson into the top contenders for the MIP award, although this level of production is completely out of nowhere for him. Last year, he averaged only 8.1 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 0.7 threes in 24.2 minutes per game while shooting 47.7% overall and 35.3% from three-point range.

Either way, there are enough completely-out-of-left-field emergences that Avdija and Johnson shouldn’t be as far ahead of the pack in the Most Improved Player odds as they currently are.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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