DraftKings vs Kalshi: Truist Survey Reveals Betting Preferences

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• DraftKings Leads Overall Appeal
• Who Uses Prediction Markets
• Market Context and 2025 Trends
• Crypto Gambling Angle
• Key Takeaways
• Frequently Asked Questions
• The Bottom Line

A new survey from Truist Securities places DraftKings ahead of Kalshi and other prediction market platforms in overall user appeal, with 20% of respondents selecting the traditional sportsbook as their top choice. Kalshi holds the lead within its own category, but the data reveals a clear split: established sportsbooks dominate in states with legal online betting, while prediction markets fill the gap in states that still prohibit it. The findings carry significant implications for how the U.S. betting industry will evolve through 2025 and beyond.

DraftKings Captures 20% Overall Appeal While Kalshi Leads Its Category

What the Truist Survey Actually Measured

Truist Securities, a major U.S. financial services firm, surveyed a broad sample of bettors and asked them to rank platforms by overall appeal. DraftKings came out on top at 20%, a figure that reflects the brand’s deep penetration in the regulated sports betting market since its public listing in 2020 [1]. The survey compared traditional sportsbooks directly against prediction market platforms, a methodology that highlights how differently consumers perceive these two product types.

Kalshi, which received CFTC regulatory approval to operate sports-event contracts in late 2024, ranked first specifically among prediction market users. That distinction matters: Kalshi is winning its own segment while still trailing legacy sportsbooks in head-to-head overall preference comparisons. The gap between category leadership and overall market appeal is the central tension the survey exposes.

Other prediction market competitors, including Polymarket and Robinhood’s newly launched prediction feature, ranked below Kalshi within the prediction market segment, confirming Kalshi’s position as the dominant brand in that space. The survey results align with broader analyst commentary suggesting that prediction markets and sportsbooks are not yet direct substitutes in the minds of most bettors.

Why Traditional Sportsbooks Still Win on Familiarity

DraftKings operates in more than 20 U.S. states with full mobile sports betting licenses, giving it a structural advantage in brand recognition and user acquisition that newer platforms cannot easily replicate [2]. The Truist data shows that user preference for traditional sportsbooks is highest in jurisdictions where online sports betting is already permitted, which currently covers roughly half of all U.S. states. Familiarity, existing account relationships, and promotional offers all reinforce that preference.

Kalshi’s regulatory model operates under federal CFTC oversight rather than state-by-state gaming licenses, which theoretically allows it to serve users in all 50 states. That national reach is Kalshi’s structural advantage, but the Truist survey suggests it has not yet translated into broad consumer preference. Converting awareness into preference requires sustained marketing investment and a product experience that feels intuitive to bettors accustomed to point spreads and moneylines.

Prediction Markets Draw a Distinct, High-Income User Base

Demographics That Define the Prediction Market Audience

The Truist survey paints a specific demographic portrait of prediction market users: primarily aged between their late twenties and late forties, holding university degrees, and earning more than $100,000 annually [1]. This profile differs meaningfully from the broader sports betting population, which skews younger and includes a wider income range. The prediction market audience resembles the early adopter profile seen in retail investing platforms like Robinhood in 2015 and 2016.

High earners with college educations tend to be more comfortable with probability-based thinking and financial instruments, which maps naturally onto how prediction markets frame their contracts. Rather than betting on a team to cover a spread, users on Kalshi buy or sell contracts priced between $0 and $1 based on the probability of an event occurring. That framing appeals to people with investment experience more than it appeals to casual sports fans.

The income and education skew also suggests that prediction market platforms carry higher average revenue per user potential, even if their total user base remains smaller than DraftKings or FanDuel. Truist analysts noted this dynamic as a reason to watch Kalshi’s monetization trajectory closely, even if its current overall appeal lags behind legacy sportsbooks.

California and Texas: The Prediction Market Opportunity Zones

The survey identifies California and Texas as the two states showing the highest engagement with prediction markets, and both states remain without legal online sports betting as of mid-2025 [2]. California’s Proposition 27, which would have legalized mobile sports betting, failed at the ballot in November 2022 with 83% of voters opposing it. Texas has not passed enabling legislation despite multiple attempts in recent legislative sessions.

Together, California and Texas represent approximately 60 million adults, making them the largest untapped markets for any form of legal sports wagering in the country. Prediction markets, operating under federal CFTC jurisdiction rather than state gaming law, can legally serve users in both states. This regulatory arbitrage gives Kalshi and similar platforms a genuine first-mover advantage in two of the three most populous U.S. states.

The concentration of prediction market engagement in these states is not coincidental. Bettors who want to wager on sports outcomes in California or Texas have limited legal options, and prediction markets offer a compliant alternative. If either state eventually legalizes traditional sports betting, the competitive calculus could shift rapidly in favor of established sportsbooks.

The U.S. Prediction Market Sector Grew Rapidly Through 2024 and 2025

Kalshi secured a landmark legal victory in September 2024 when a federal appeals court ruled that the CFTC could not block its sports event contracts, clearing the path for the platform to operate nationally [2]. That ruling triggered a wave of competitor activity, with Robinhood launching its own prediction market feature and traditional financial brokerages exploring similar products. The Truist survey captures consumer sentiment at a moment when the sector is expanding rapidly but has not yet matured.

The American Gaming Association reported that legal sports betting handle in the United States exceeded $120 billion in 2023, with that figure growing in 2024 as more states went live [1]. Prediction markets represent a small fraction of that total today, but analysts at firms including Truist argue the addressable market is substantially larger when you account for states without legal sportsbooks. The regulatory structure under the CFTC also means prediction market contracts are classified as financial instruments rather than gambling, a distinction that affects how platforms can advertise and who can participate.

DraftKings CEO Jason Robins has publicly acknowledged prediction markets as a category worth monitoring, though the company has not announced a direct entry into that space as of mid-2025. The Truist survey data gives DraftKings reason to feel confident in its current positioning while also signaling that Kalshi’s demographic advantage among high-income, educated users could compound over time if the category grows.

What This Means for Crypto Casino and Gambling Platforms

The rise of prediction markets carries a direct parallel to the crypto gambling sector’s own regulatory journey. Platforms like Polymarket operate on blockchain infrastructure and use cryptocurrency settlement, placing them at the intersection of prediction markets and crypto gambling. The Truist survey’s finding that prediction market users skew toward high-income, college-educated adults aged late twenties to late forties closely mirrors the demographic profile of active crypto casino users, suggesting meaningful audience overlap [1].

For crypto-focused gambling operators, the competitive dynamic between Kalshi and DraftKings illustrates a broader truth: regulatory clarity accelerates mainstream adoption, but it also intensifies competition from well-capitalized incumbents. Kalshi’s CFTC approval gave it legitimacy, but DraftKings’ 20% overall appeal score shows that legitimacy alone does not overcome brand equity built over years of marketing spend. Crypto casinos navigating their own licensing questions face a similar challenge: regulatory approval opens doors, but converting that access into user preference requires sustained product and marketing investment.

Key Takeaways

• DraftKings ranked first in overall platform appeal among Truist survey respondents, capturing 20% of selections across all platform types compared.
• Kalshi leads the prediction market category specifically, outperforming Polymarket and other competitors within that segment.
• User preference for traditional sportsbooks is strongest in the roughly 25 U.S. states where online sports betting is currently legal.
• California and Texas, two states without legal sports betting and a combined adult population exceeding 60 million, show the highest prediction market engagement rates.
• Prediction market users are primarily aged late twenties to late forties, hold university degrees, and earn more than $100,000 annually, according to the Truist survey.
• Kalshi received a federal appeals court ruling in September 2024 confirming its right to offer sports event contracts under CFTC oversight, enabling national operation.
• The U.S. legal sports betting handle surpassed $120 billion in 2023, with prediction markets currently representing a small but growing share of total wagering activity.

Frequently Asked Questions

Based on the Truist Securities survey, DraftKings scores higher in overall user appeal at 20% of respondents selecting it as the top option. Kalshi leads within the prediction market category but trails DraftKings in head-to-head overall preference. The better choice depends on your state: DraftKings operates under state sports betting licenses in over 20 states, while Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated contracts are available nationally, including in California and Texas [1].

A prediction market lets users buy and sell contracts priced between $0 and $1 based on the probability of a specific event occurring, with payouts determined by the outcome. A traditional sportsbook sets odds on events and accepts bets against the house. Prediction markets are regulated as financial instruments by the CFTC at the federal level, while sportsbooks require state-by-state gaming licenses [2].

Yes. Because Kalshi operates under federal CFTC oversight rather than state gaming law, it can legally offer its prediction market contracts to users in California and Texas, both of which prohibit traditional online sports betting. The Truist survey found that these two states show the highest engagement with prediction market platforms among all U.S. states [1].

According to the Truist Securities survey, prediction market users are primarily adults in their late twenties to late forties, the majority hold university degrees, and most earn more than $100,000 per year. This demographic skews older and more affluent than the typical sports bettor profile, and it closely resembles the early adopter base seen in retail investing platforms [1][2].

The Bottom Line

The Truist Securities survey delivers a clear verdict for 2025: DraftKings retains the broadest consumer appeal among U.S. betting platforms, but Kalshi has carved out a defensible position as the leading prediction market brand, particularly among high-income users in states where traditional sports betting remains illegal. The 20% overall appeal figure for DraftKings reflects years of brand investment and the structural advantage of operating in a legal, familiar product category. Kalshi’s category leadership reflects a genuine product-market fit with a specific, valuable demographic.

The more consequential story may be geographic. California and Texas are not niche markets. They are the first and second most populous states in the country, and prediction markets are currently the only legal sports wagering option available to tens of millions of adults there. If either state moves toward legalization, the competitive dynamics will shift quickly. Until then, Kalshi and its peers have a window to build loyalty with a user base that traditional sportsbooks cannot yet reach.

The battle between prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks is not a zero-sum contest, but it is a signal that the U.S. betting industry is fragmenting along regulatory and demographic lines. The platforms that understand which users they are actually serving, and why, will hold the advantage as the market continues to develop.

Sources

1. Casino.org – Truist survey data on DraftKings overall appeal, prediction market user demographics, and state-level engagement findings.
2. Gambling News – Kalshi CFTC regulatory approval, federal appeals court ruling, and competitive prediction market platform analysis.

The post DraftKings vs Kalshi: Truist Survey Reveals Betting Preferences first appeared on Cryptsy - Latest Cryptocurrency News and Predictions and is written by Ethan Blackburn