Bitcoin volatility jumps to highest level since March 2025

BTC volatility returned to levels not seen since March 2025, as the leading coin is quick to react to any signs of panic. BTC is deleveraged and shows signs of choppy sideways trading. 

BTC has returned to higher volatility in February. The monthly metric rose to the highest level since March 2025. 

BTC is now moving sideways, but remains choppy, with rapid daily shifts. In the past week, BTC recovered close to $70,000 on rumors Jane Street had stopped its daily selling. Later, the coin dipped to $65,000 in another downturn. 

BTC volatility remains elevated

The volatility index rose to 2.63% for the latest 30-day estimate, growing from January’s lows of under 1%. On a longer time frame, BTC volatility has been within a bound range for the past three years, signaling a generally mature market. 

The BTC futures market remains deleveraged, with open interest down to a one-year low of $19.74B. However, this does not prevent short-term rallies and liquidations of long positions. The overall effect is increased volatility and choppy prices, instead of long-term stagnation. 

The current trading indicators point to the formation of a market bottom, following a sharp capitulation event, and even question the utility of BTC as a whole. 

Will BTC end February with a loss?

BTC traded at $65,987.77 as of February 27, logging over 16% in losses for the month to date. For the first quarter of 2026, BTC is down by over 24% for the first quarter to date. 

The current monthly loss will be unique in BTC’s history, as the coin has never experienced losses in January and February in a row.

Usually, one of the months sees a relief rally, but in 2026, sentiment was low enough to extend losses for two months in a row. For the entire February, the crypto fear and greed index has been in the ‘extreme fear’ range, with no signs of confident buying and diminishing long positions. 

BTC is also the only major asset lagging in 2026. Gold is up by over 81%, while silver retained 190% in gains even after its correction. NASDAQ added 21% despite the recent crash in software stocks over the threat of AI disruption. 

In the short term, BTC has shown it can quickly switch to a more bullish sentiment. The coin is showing signs of a market bottom and may spend some time in accumulation. For now, there are no signs of rebuilding leverage, which is the main driver of directional price moves. 

In the past, BTC has rebuilt leverage in 3-6 months, but this time, the October 11 liquidation events caused a deep distrust of trading futures. BTC traders and analysts still have not reached a consensus on whether BTC would have a mini bear market or, once again, spend years in sideways trading.

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